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  Delivered second highest net earnings of any first quarter on record, advanced strategic initiatives and returned $1.1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. Full-year guidance reflects expectation for fertilizer benchmark prices to stabilize near mid-cycle values.

All amounts are in US dollars except as otherwise noted

SASKATOON, Saskatchewan--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nutrien Ltd. (TSX and NYSE: NTR) announced today its first quarter 2023 results, with net earnings of $0.6 billion ($1.14 diluted net earnings per share). First quarter 2023 adjusted net earnings per share¹ was $1.11 and adjusted EBITDA¹ was $1.4 billion.

“Nutrien delivered adjusted EBITDA of $1.4 billion in the first quarter and continued to demonstrate the advantages of our flexible, low-cost production assets and global distribution network. We invested in initiatives to sustain and grow our asset base and returned $1.1 billion to shareholders during the quarter,” commented Ken Seitz, Nutrien’s President and CEO.

“Crop input demand has strengthened as the spring planting season progresses in the northern hemisphere and higher cost inventory is moving through the channel. We are encouraged by the continued stabilization of fertilizer markets following a year of unprecedented volatility and anticipate increased demand in the second half of 2023 due to strong agriculture fundamentals, improved grower affordability and lower inventory levels. With fertilizer prices near mid-cycle levels, we expect to generate strong operating cash flows in 2023 and to maintain a balanced and disciplined approach to capital allocation,” added Mr. Seitz.

Highlights²:

• Nutrien Ag Solutions (“Retail”) adjusted EBITDA declined to $(34) million in the first quarter of 2023 primarily due to lower sales and gross margins for crop nutrients and crop protection products compared to the record levels achieved in 2022. Crop nutrient margins were below normalized levels in the first quarter as prices declined and we worked through higher cost inventory.
• Potash adjusted EBITDA declined to $676 million in the first quarter of 2023 due to lower net realized selling prices and lower sales volumes. North American sales volumes were impacted by just-in-time buying. Lower offshore demand from customers in Asia was largely offset by record first quarter Canpotex sales volumes to Brazil.
• Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA declined to $676 million in the first quarter of 2023 due to lower net realized selling prices for all major nitrogen products. This was partially offset by lower natural gas costs and increased operating rates at our North American nitrogen plants.
• Nutrien repurchased 11.8 million shares year-to-date as of March 31, 2023, under its normal course issuer bid programs, for approximately $900 million. The Company’s total shares outstanding declined to 496 million as at the end of the first quarter of 2023, representing a 10 percent reduction compared to the same period in 2022.
• Nutrien full year 2023 adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net earnings per share guidance¹ was revised to $6.5 to $8.0 billion and $5.50 to $7.50 per share, respectively.

Management’s Discussion and Analysis

The following management’s discussion and analysis (“MD&A”) is the responsibility of management and is dated as of May 10, 2023. The Board of Directors (“Board”) of Nutrien carries out its responsibility for review of this disclosure principally through its Audit Committee, composed entirely of independent directors. The Audit Committee reviews and, prior to its publication, approves this disclosure pursuant to the authority delegated to it by the Board. The term “Nutrien” refers to Nutrien Ltd. and the terms “we”, “us”, “our”, “Nutrien” and “the Company” refer to Nutrien and, as applicable, Nutrien and its direct and indirect subsidiaries on a consolidated basis. Additional information relating to Nutrien (which, except as otherwise noted, is not incorporated by reference herein), including our annual report dated February 16, 2023 (“2022 Annual Report”), which includes our annual audited consolidated financial statements and MD&A, and our annual information form dated February 16, 2023, each for the year ended December 31, 2022, can be found on SEDAR at www.sedar.com and on EDGAR at www.sec.gov. No update is provided to the disclosure in our 2022 annual MD&A except for material information since the date of our annual MD&A. The Company is a foreign private issuer under the rules and regulations of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”).

This MD&A is based on and should be read in conjunction with the Company’s unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements as at and for the three months ended March 31, 2023 (“interim financial statements”) based on International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”) as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board and prepared in accordance with International Accounting Standard (“IAS”) 34 “Interim Financial Reporting”, unless otherwise noted. This MD&A contains certain non-IFRS financial measures and ratios and forward-looking statements, which are described in the “Non-IFRS Financial Measures” and the “Forward-Looking Statements” sections, respectively.

Market Outlook and Guidance

Agriculture and Retail

• Geopolitical and weather-related challenges continue to impact global agriculture commodity markets, including significant production and export reductions from Ukraine and severe drought conditions in Argentina. The global grain stocks-to-use ratio is projected to end the current growing season at the lowest level in over 25 years. Corn, soybeans and wheat prices have softened recently due to seasonal pressure resulting from the expectation of higher Brazilian and US crop production. However, new crop futures are still approximately 15 percent above the 10-year average and grower margins remain healthy, providing incentive to invest in their crop and boost production.
• We expect an 8 million acre increase in US major crop planted area in 2023, including an additional 3 million acres of corn, which is supportive of crop input demand. Planting activity is progressing well in North America and fertilizer application rates have been in line with historical average levels and well above rates in the spring of 2022. The combination of strong demand and logistical challenges has tightened North American fertilizer supply.
• South American crop production has been mixed as record Brazilian soybean production and strong prospects for the safrinha corn crop are balanced against the impacts of severe drought in Argentina. We expect increased application rates for the 2023 summer crop planting season due to improved affordability ratios compared to the previous year. Australian winter crop planting is progressing well, with no major shifts in acreage expected from record 2022 levels.

Crop Nutrient Markets

• Potash demand has strengthened in North America as the spring application season has progressed, while engagement in offshore markets has been more variable. We anticipate increased global potash demand in the second half of 2023 as a result of lower expected inventories and improved grower affordability compared to 2022.
• Potash shipments from Belarus are projected to be above our previous expectation for 2023, partially offset by lower expected exports from Russia. We now project Belarusian shipments will be down 25 to 40 percent this year and Russian shipments down 25 to 35 percent compared to 2021. We have maintained our global potash shipment forecast between 63 and 67 million tonnes in 2023.
• North American nitrogen supply has tightened during the spring season due to strong demand and lower net imports. Global nitrogen trade has been impacted by weaker industrial demand in Asia and Europe, and lower Indian urea imports. We expect ammonia markets will strengthen as demand increases and supply remains challenged with approximately 40 percent of European capacity currently curtailed and Russian ammonia exports are constrained.
• North American dry phosphate prices firmed during the spring season driven by tight supplies and strong demand, while international prices have remained relatively stable, supported by demand in Brazil and India. Lower ammonia and sulfur prices have been supportive of margins. We expect Chinese phosphate exports to increase moderately year-over-year due to expected loosening of government restrictions.

Financial Guidance

• Based on market factors detailed above, we are revising full-year 2023 adjusted EBITDA guidance² to $6.5 to $8.0 billion and full year 2023 adjusted net earnings guidance² to $5.50 to $7.50 per share. We now project cash from operations of $5.0 to $5.8 billion, which is expected to be relatively stable due to an anticipated release in working capital.
• Retail adjusted EBITDA guidance was lowered primarily due to the expectation of below normal crop nutrient gross margins in the first half of 2023 as we work through higher cost inventory.
• Potash adjusted EBITDA guidance decreased due to lower forecasted benchmark fertilizer prices and sales tonnes. Potash sales tonnes guidance of 13.5 to 14.3 million tonnes assumes increased demand year-over-year in our key markets of North America and Brazil, partially offset by lower shipments to China due to delayed contract negotiations with Canpotex.
• Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA guidance decreased due to lower forecasted benchmark fertilizer prices, partially offset by the expectation for lower North American natural gas prices.

All guidance numbers, including those noted above are outlined in the table below. Refer to page 56 of Nutrien’s 2022 Annual Report for related assumptions and sensitivities, except as set forth below.

Consolidated Results

Net earnings and adjusted EBITDA decreased in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022, due to lower net realized selling prices in all segments and lower sales volumes in Retail, Potash and Phosphate. This was partially offset by decreased cost of goods sold from lower natural gas costs and increased operating rates at our North American nitrogen plants. The increase in cash used in operating activities was primarily due to lower earnings across all segments. The increase in cash used in investing activities reflects higher capital expenditures to sustain and grow our asset base and incremental cash used for Retail business acquisitions. Cash used for dividends and share repurchases increased in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022 due to higher share repurchases under our normal course issuer bid programs.

Segment Results

Our discussion of segment results set out on the following pages is a comparison of the results for the three months ended March 31, 2023 to the results for the three months ended March 31, 2022, unless otherwise noted.

Nutrien Ag Solutions (“Retail”)